UFC Vegas 122 Allen vs. Duncan: BetOnline Moneylines + Fight-by-Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan (UFC Vegas 122): Saturday, October 10, 2026, Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada. Prelims 2:00 PM PT, main card 5:00 PM PT, the whole card on Paramount+. There are no early prelims this time: 12 fights, five on the main card and seven on the prelims. The middleweight main event between No. 4 Brendan Allen and No. 10 Christian Leroy Duncan is scheduled for five rounds; everything else is three.

BetOnline American moneylines come first, then the card fight by fight: who each fighter is, what they're good at, and how they actually win. Favorites in red, underdogs in green. Records and finish numbers come from UFC.com athlete pages; weigh-in results come from UFC.com, MMA Fighting and Sherdog. Where a file is thin (one UFC fight, long layoffs), I say so.

BetOnline board (snapshot)

Allen −117 / Duncan +100
Camilo −190 / Herbert +161
Godinez −230 / Souza +193
Fili −145 / Kamaka +124
Wellmaker −210 / Tanzilovi +177
Walker −325 / Meerschaert +265
Prado −144 / Bonfim +123
Shahbazyan −146 / Price +125
Franco −405 / Ribeiro +323
Harris −350 / Frye +284
Pereira −135 / Zheleznyakova +116
Gatto −125 / Kareckaitė +107

Odds source: BetOnline.ag (UFC Vegas 122 board), checked October 9, 2026, ~8:05 PM PT. Lines move. All 12 bouts had a BetOnline moneyline at the snapshot. Duncan is at even money (+100), so he's shown in green as the side not laying juice. Three fighters missed weight on Friday and their fights go on at catchweights: Ismael Bonfim came in at 163.5 (7.5 pounds over, his third miss in the UFC), Brendson Ribeiro at 208.5 (2.5 over) and Ketlen Souza at 117 (1 over). Bonfim forfeits 25% of his purse; Ribeiro and Souza forfeit 20%.

Main card

Brendan Allen (−117) vs Christian Leroy Duncan (+100), middleweight, 5 rounds

Allen (27-7, #4 middleweight): A jiu-jitsu fighter first. Fourteen of his 27 wins are submissions (11 of them rear-naked chokes), with 6 KO/TKO and 7 decisions, and 11 first-round finishes. His game is to pressure, get to the clinch or a scramble, and take the back; Paul Craig, Bruno Silva, Andre Muniz and Krzysztof Jotko all got choked. He's 3-0 since back-to-back decision losses to Nassourdine Imavov and Anthony Hernandez: a decision over Marvin Vettori, a fourth-round corner stoppage of Reinier de Ridder, and a decision over Edmen Shahbazyan in June. The defensive soft spot is his striking defense: UFC.com has him at 48% significant-strike defense and 3.78 absorbed per minute. Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland are the two men who stopped him with strikes. He's been five rounds before (a split-decision win over Curtis, plus the de Ridder fight).

Duncan (15-2, #10): A long (79" reach, four inches more than Allen), patient kickboxer out of Gloucester, England. He has 10 KO/TKO wins, 1 submission and 4 decisions, and he's never been finished. His numbers are the cleanest on the card: 4.45 significant strikes landed per minute against 2.36 absorbed, with 54% strike defense. He's on a five-fight win streak: Andrey Pulyaev (decision), Eryk Anders (TKO), Marco Tulio (KO), then decisions over Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier. His two losses were decisions to Armen Petrosyan and Gregory Rodrigues. This is his first five-round fight. Takedown defense sits at 58%.

How it plays out: Duncan wants it at range, where his jab, kicks and straight shots keep Allen on the end of punches and let him win rounds on cleaner work. Allen wants to walk through that, get chest to chest, and turn it into a grappling fight where one scramble ends with his arm under the chin. Allen has been past 15 minutes; Duncan hasn't. The longer it goes, the more ground exchanges there will be, and that is where Allen's edge is.

Pick: Allen, by late submission or decision. It's close to a coin flip on the board and I agree; Duncan at even money is a live dog if he keeps it standing.

Matheus Camilo (−190) vs Jai Herbert (+161), lightweight

Camilo (11-3): A 25-year-old Brazilian out of Xtreme Couture with a BJJ brown belt. His record is 5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions (kimura, triangle) and 4 decisions. He's 2-1 in the UFC: submitted by Gabe Green in his debut, then a decision over Viacheslav Borshchev and a 1:31 TKO of Nazim Sadykhov in June. He's a grappling-first fighter who's dangerous on the feet: UFC.com has him at 4.16 takedowns per 15 minutes, and opponents have landed on only a third of their strikes against him (67% defense) in a small sample.

Herbert (14-6-1): The former Cage Warriors lightweight champion is a tall, rangy (6'1", 77" reach) power striker. He has 10 KO/TKO wins, 1 submission and 3 decisions. At 38, he's 4-5-1 in the UFC. He knocked out Mandel Nallo in the first round in April after a split-decision loss to Chris Padilla, with a decision over Rolando Bedoya before that. His losses include stoppages by Francisco Trinaldo and Ilia Topuria (KO) and a rear-naked choke from Renato Moicano. His takedown defense is 67%.

How it plays out: Herbert wins at distance with his jab and right hand, the way he finished Nallo. Camilo wants to close that reach gap, take him down and work on top, which is how Moicano beat Herbert. Herbert can't afford to spend long stretches on his back.

Pick: Camilo, by decision or a submission off his wrestling.

Loopy Godinez (−230) vs Ketlen Souza (+193), women's strawweight (catchweight)

Godinez (14-6, #8 strawweight): A busy, high-volume pressure fighter who mixes strikes with constant takedown attempts. Her record shows it: 11 of her 14 wins are decisions, with 1 KO/TKO and 2 submissions (armbar, RNC). UFC.com credits her with 4.43 significant strikes per minute, 2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes and 77% takedown defense. She's beaten Jéssica Andrade and Julia Polastri by decision, but Tatiana Suarez submitted her with a rear-naked choke in April. All six of her losses have come against UFC opposition, and five of them went to the judges.

Souza (17-6): A powerful Brazilian striker (UFC.com lists her style as boxing) who also holds black belts in BJJ and luta livre. She has 9 KO/TKO wins, 2 submissions and 6 decisions. She's 4-3 in the UFC and has won two straight: a decision over Bruna Brasil and a 1:34 knockout of Ariane Carnelossi in June. Her two losses before that were split decisions to Piera Rodriguez and Angela Hill. Her weak spot on paper is takedown defense (54%). She missed weight by a pound on Friday.

How it plays out: Souza wants a striking fight and has the power edge; if she lands early, she can end it. Godinez wants to drown her in volume and level changes over 15 minutes and win the scrambles. Souza's takedown defense matches up badly with Godinez's wrestling-heavy style.

Pick: Godinez by decision.

Andre Fili (−145) vs Kai Kamaka III (+124), featherweight

Fili (25-14, 1 NC): A UFC veteran since 2013 who trains at Syndicate MMA, a long (74" reach) kickboxer who wrestles when he needs to. He has 10 KO/TKO wins, 3 submissions and 12 decisions. Recent form is the problem: he's 1-3 in his last four, with a guillotine loss to Melquizael Costa, a split-decision win over Christian Rodriguez, a split-decision loss to Jose Miguel Delgado, and a second-round TKO loss to Vinicius Oliveira in June. He's 36 and absorbs more than he lands (4.55 vs 3.89 per minute).

Kamaka (18-8-1): A Hawaiian boxer out of Xtreme Couture with a BJJ black belt and a lot of decisions: 14 of his 18 wins went the distance, with 3 KO/TKO and 1 submission. He's back in the UFC after a run that included a PFL semifinal in 2024. He won his return by split decision over Dakota Hope in April, then Luke Riley stopped him in the first round in July. He's a high-output, high-contact fighter: 5.49 significant strikes landed per minute, 6.03 absorbed.

How it plays out: Fili wants to use his length, kick from range and mix in takedowns. Kamaka wants to close distance and turn it into a boxing fight with heavy volume. Both are coming off stoppage losses, and both get hit a lot.

Pick: Kamaka at +124, low confidence. I'm betting against Fili's form at 36 more than I'm betting on Kamaka's.

Malcolm Wellmaker (−210) vs Otari Tanzilovi (+177), bantamweight

Wellmaker (10-2): An American Top Team striker with real power: 6 KO/TKO wins, 2 submissions and 2 decisions, with six first-round finishes. He knocked out Cameron Saaiman and Kris Moutinho in his first two UFC fights, but he's lost two straight since: a decision to Ethyn Ewing and a second-round rear-naked choke against Juan Diaz in May. UFC.com has him averaging 1.44 knockdowns per 15 minutes, with 47% takedown defense. He strikes well; his problem has been wrestlers.

Tanzilovi (10-2): A Georgian kickboxer out of Syndicate MMA, a five-time Georgian kickboxing champion with 7 KO/TKO wins and 3 decisions (no submissions). Both of his losses are on the big stage: a split decision on Dana White's Contender Series and a decision to Shane Collins in his UFC debut in June. In that debut he defended 86% of takedown attempts, per UFC.com. Data caution: one UFC fight.

How it plays out: Striker against striker. Wellmaker wants an early exchange where his power shows up; Tanzilovi wants to use kicks and volume to make it a 15-minute kickboxing fight. Tanzilovi isn't a wrestler, so the matchup that has hurt Wellmaker isn't here.

Pick: Wellmaker by KO/TKO.

Prelims

Julius Walker (−325) vs Gerald Meerschaert (+265), light heavyweight

Walker (7-3): A 6'4" former college basketball player with a 78" reach and a BJJ purple belt. He has 4 KO/TKO and 2 submission wins, five of them in the first round. He's 1-3 in the UFC: a split-decision loss to Alonzo Menifield, a decision over Rafael Cerqueira, then knockout losses to Dustin Jacoby (second round) and Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (eight seconds in June). His striking defense (43%) and those two straight knockouts are the worry.

Meerschaert (37-22): A veteran submission specialist with 29 submission wins (rear-naked chokes, guillotines, arm-triangles), 6 KOs and only 2 decisions. At 38 he's lost five straight: an arm-triangle by Reinier de Ridder, a decision to Brad Tavares, a TKO by Michal Oleksiejczuk, a D'Arce choke by Kyle Daukaus, and a decision to Jacob Malkoun in May. After years at middleweight, this one is at light heavyweight (he weighed 205.5). His takedown defense is 40%, and his chin has gotten worse.

How it plays out: Walker wins by staying long, landing first and keeping it on the feet. Meerschaert wins the way he always has: catch a neck in a scramble or after a clinch takedown. He's still dangerous on the mat even when he's losing on the feet.

Pick: Walker by KO/TKO. Meerschaert's submission is the only real upset path.

Francisco Prado (−144) vs Ismael Bonfim (+123), lightweight (catchweight)

Prado (12-5): A 24-year-old Argentine out of American Top Team, a taekwondo black belt and BJJ purple belt. All 12 of his wins are finishes (6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions), and he won 11 straight before going 1-5 in his last six. Every one of those UFC losses went to decision: Jamie Mullarkey, Daniel Zellhuber, Jake Matthews, Nikolay Veretennikov (split) and Charles Radtke in April. His one UFC win was a TKO of Ottman Azaitar. He hasn't been finished.

Bonfim (20-7): "Marreta" is a power boxer with black belts in BJJ, luta livre and kickboxing. He has 9 KO/TKO wins, 4 submissions and 7 decisions. He's lost three straight, all stoppages: a doctor's stoppage against Nazim Sadykhov, a TKO by Chris Padilla and a D'Arce choke by Axel Sola in July. He missed weight by 7.5 pounds on Friday, his third miss in the promotion.

How it plays out: Bonfim will be the bigger man in the cage and the better pure boxer (5.10 significant strikes landed per minute, 63% defense). Prado wants to pressure and make it a 15-minute fight, which he does every time. That weight miss usually tells you something about a fighter's camp.

Pick: Prado by decision, low confidence.

Niko Price (+125) vs Leon Shahbazyan (−146), welterweight

Price (16-11, 2 NC): A wild, all-action brawler with 10 KO/TKO wins, 3 submissions and 3 decisions, and 10 first-round finishes. At 37 he's on a four-fight losing streak: a decision to Themba Gorimbo, then three straight stoppages: a Jacobe Smith rear-naked choke, a Nikolay Veretennikov first-round TKO and a 63-second Michael Chiesa rear-naked choke in March. He's been stopped in each of his last three, twice by rear-naked choke.

Shahbazyan (12-5): Edmen's younger brother, and a guillotine specialist. Eleven of his 12 wins are submissions (six guillotines), and he has never won a decision; his UFC.com bio counts seven finishes in under a minute. His UFC debut in June went badly: Levan Chokheli knocked him out in 23 seconds. UFC.com's striking defense on him (33%) comes from a small sample, but it fits that fight.

How it plays out: Both men finish fights early. Shahbazyan wants to land a guillotine or take the back in the first scramble, which is exactly how Price has lost recently. Price wants to hit him on the way in, which is how Shahbazyan lost his debut.

Pick: Shahbazyan by first-round submission. This one shouldn't go long.

Felipe Franco (−405) vs Brendson Ribeiro (+323), light heavyweight (catchweight)

Franco (11-2): A 25-year-old BJJ black belt and judo brown belt from Salvador. He finishes everybody: 7 KO/TKO and 4 submissions, with no decision wins and 10 first-round finishes. His two losses were a third-round submission on the Contender Series and a decision to Mario Pinto in his UFC debut in March. He got his first UFC win in July with a second-round TKO of Levi Rodrigues Jr. UFC.com credits him with 3.70 takedowns per 15 minutes and 88% takedown defense.

Ribeiro (17-11): "The Gorilla" is a long (81" reach) striker with 9 KO/TKO wins and 7 submissions (four guillotines). He's lost four straight: Azamat Murzakanov (TKO), Oumar Sy (TKO), Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (RNC) and a decision to Magomed Tuchalov in July. His takedown defense is 32%, and he missed weight by 2.5 pounds on Friday.

How it plays out: Franco wants to get it to the mat and finish from top. Ribeiro has the length and needs to land early, before the takedowns start. His takedown defense makes that hard.

Pick: Franco by stoppage. −405 is parlay material, not a straight bet.

Allen Frye Jr. (+284) vs RJ Harris (−350), heavyweight

Frye (6-1): A 6'5" heavyweight (80.5" reach) and former basketball player. All six of his wins are by knockout. His one loss was his UFC debut, a decision to Guilherme Pat in December 2025. That fight showed his weakness: 2.20 significant strikes landed per minute and 36% defense across 15 minutes. Data caution: one UFC fight, about ten months out of the cage.

Harris (6-0): A former high school wrestler and Toughman champion who has only been pro since March 2025. He has 2 KO/TKO wins, 3 submissions (guillotine, americana, forearm choke) and 1 decision. In his UFC debut in July he stopped Alvin Hines in 1:40. He weighed 261 on Friday, 15 pounds more than Frye. Data caution: one UFC fight and less than two years as a pro.

How it plays out: Harris wants to close distance, get his weight on Frye and finish on the mat or with ground strikes. Frye has the reach and needs to keep him at the end of his punches. At heavyweight, one clean shot can always change a fight.

Pick: Harris by stoppage.

Alice Pereira (−135) vs Daria Zheleznyakova (+116), women's bantamweight

Pereira (7-1): At 20, she's the youngest fighter on the UFC roster. She's a tall (5'8", 71" reach) striker with a kickboxing black belt and a sanda background, with 5 KO/TKO wins, 1 submission and 1 decision. She lost her UFC debut by split decision to Montserrat Rendon, then knocked out Hailey Cowan in the second round in April. Her striking defense is 67% so far.

Zheleznyakova (10-3, #15 bantamweight): A Russian boxer by background, with 5 KO/TKO wins and 5 decisions (no submissions). She builds her offense off the jab. She's 2-2 in the UFC: a decision over Montserrat Rendon (the same fighter who beat Pereira), a submission loss to Ailin Perez, a decision over Melissa Mullins, and a decision loss to Melissa Croden in April. Her takedown defense is 50%.

How it plays out: Striker against striker. Pereira has the power and length and wants to land something heavy. Zheleznyakova wants to keep it a jab-and-volume decision fight, which is where she's better. Neither fighter has shown much wrestling, so it will likely stay standing.

Pick: Pereira, by decision or a late stoppage. Low confidence; Zheleznyakova at +116 has a real case.

Ernesta Kareckaitė (+107) vs Melissa Gatto (−125), women's flyweight

Kareckaitė (6-2-1): A Lithuanian kickboxer (two-time national champion) who throws a lot of strikes: 7.28 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 6.47. She has 2 KO/TKO wins and 4 decisions. In the UFC she lost a decision to Dione Barbosa, won a split decision over Nicolle Caliari, and lost a decision to Regina Tarin in February. Her takedown defense is 81%.

Gatto (9-3-2): A BJJ brown belt and luta livre black belt who has scored more of her UFC wins on the feet than on the mat. She has 3 KO/TKO wins, 4 submissions (two armbars) and 2 decisions. Her UFC wins are stoppages of Victoria Leonardo, Sijara Eubanks and Tamires Vidal; her losses were decisions to Tracy Cortez, Ariane da Silva and, in April, a majority decision to Dione Barbosa. Data caution: she was out almost two years between May 2024 and April 2026.

How it plays out: Kareckaitė wants a 15-minute volume fight, and her takedown defense means she can probably keep it standing. Gatto has the more dangerous single shots and the better grappling if she can get it down, but all three of her UFC wins came on the feet.

Pick: Kareckaitė at +107, low confidence.

Data gaps

Four fighters have one UFC fight or less on their record (Tanzilovi, Shahbazyan, Harris, Frye), so their UFC.com rate stats come from very small samples. Gatto had a nearly two-year layoff before April, and Frye has been out about ten months. UFC.com's win-method breakdowns don't always match the bio (Walker's breakdown shows no decision wins, but he beat Rafael Cerqueira on the cards), and some opponent names differ between pages (Regina Tarin/Malpica, Ariane Lipski/da Silva); where they conflicted, I used the written fight-by-fight results in each athlete's UFC.com bio. Three fighters missed weight and three bouts are at catchweights. No bouts were scratched as of the snapshot.

Records and finish numbers from UFC.com athlete pages; weigh-in results via UFC.com, MMA Fighting and Sherdog. Odds from BetOnline.ag; lines move.