UFC Vegas 123 Moicano vs. Nolan: BetOnline Moneylines + Fight-by-Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan (UFC Vegas 123): Saturday, October 31, 2026, Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada. Prelims 2:00 PM PT, main card 5:00 PM PT, the whole card on Paramount+. Twelve fights: five on the main card and seven on the prelims, no early prelims. The lightweight main event between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan (listed No. 12 and No. 14 on UFC.com's event page) is scheduled for five rounds; everything else is three. It's Halloween night and the last card of a loaded October.

BetOnline American moneylines come first, then the card fight by fight: each fighter's style, how they defend, what they throw most, and how they actually win. Favorites in red, underdogs in green. Records, ages, finish breakdowns and rate stats come from UFC.com athlete pages; the card order comes from UFC.com's event page (cross-checked with Tapology and Sherdog); weigh-in results come from UFC.com, MMA Fighting and Sherdog. Where a file is thin (UFC debuts, one or two UFC fights), I say so.

BetOnline board (snapshot)

Moicano −115 / Nolan −101
Brown +234 / Smith −283
Osbourne −102 / Durden −114
Yana Santos +212 / Luana Santos −255
Lebosnoyani −305 / Hasanov +250
Marshall −219 / Hope +184
Sezinando −173 / Berggren +147
Erosa +139 / Lee −163
Reese −350 / Gall +284
Klein +265 / Kropschot −325
Alencar +247 / Rodriguez −300
Szabová −750 / Lisboa +540

Odds source: BetOnline lines as listed in the per-sportsbook moneyline tables on UFCalendar's fight pages (BetOnline row only), page updated October 30, 2026, ~11:00 AM PT. BetOnline.ag's own board sits behind a bot check I couldn't get through, so these are BetOnline's numbers as reported by a tracker, not read off BetOnline directly. All 12 bouts had a BetOnline moneyline at the snapshot; none are missing. The main event is moving: BestMMAStats' line tracker shows BetOnline opening Moicano +110 / Nolan −130 and, at a later check, Moicano −122 / Nolan +105. It's a pick'em that flipped. Moicano and Nolan are both laying juice in the snapshot, so Nolan (the smaller number) is shown in green; same for Osbourne at −102. Lines move.

Weigh-ins: 23 of 24 fighters made weight on Friday. Francis Marshall came in at 148, two pounds over the featherweight limit, for his fight with Dakota Hope. Hope is a short-notice replacement for Gaston Bolaños, who withdrew with an eye injury (MMA Fighting). Moicano weighed 156 and Nolan 155.5.

Main card

Renato Moicano (−115) vs Tom Nolan (−101), lightweight, 5 rounds

Moicano (21-7-1, age 37): A jiu-jitsu fighter (UFC.com lists his style as Jiu-Jitsu) out of American Top Team, and a back-taker above all: 11 of his 21 wins are submissions and every one of the 11 is a rear-naked choke. The rest are 2 KO/TKO and 8 decisions. On the feet he's a volume boxer who stays at range (82% of his significant strikes land at distance, 73% to the head, 17% to the legs), landing 4.10 per minute against 3.55 absorbed at 49% accuracy. Defensively, the numbers are good: 60% significant-strike defense and 64% takedown defense. He doesn't shoot well (12% takedown accuracy, 6 of 52); he gets to the back off scrambles and broken exchanges instead. Recent run: TKO (doctor stoppage) of Benoît Saint Denis, TKO of Jalin Turner, submitted by Islam Makhachev in a title fight, a decision loss to Beneil Dariush, then a second-round RNC of Chris Duncan in April. The losses that worry you are the fast ones on the feet: Rafael Fiziev, Chan Sung Jung and Jose Aldo all stopped him with strikes. He has five-round experience (a decision loss to Rafael dos Anjos).

Nolan (11-1, age 26): "Big Train" is a tall (6'2", 73" reach) Australian striker out of City Kickboxing with a black rank in Muay Thai and a BJJ black belt. He has 5 KO/TKO wins, 1 submission and 5 decisions, with five first-round finishes. He lands 4.84 significant strikes per minute and averages 0.54 knockdowns per 15 minutes. He's a body hunter: 32% of his significant strikes go to the body, the highest share in this main event, and 16% of his work comes in the clinch. The soft spot is defense: 49% strike defense and 58% takedown defense. He's on a five-fight win streak: a first-round TKO of Victor Martinez, decisions over Alex Reyes and Viacheslav Borshchev, a first-round RNC of Charlie Campbell, and a decision over Farès Ziam in June. His one loss was his UFC debut, a 63-second TKO by Nikolas Motta. This is his first main event and his first scheduled five-rounder.

How it plays out: Nolan has the size and the power and wants to work behind kicks and knees, digging to the body to slow a 37-year-old down. Moicano wants to box at range, make Nolan miss, and when the exchanges get messy, take his back. Nolan's 58% takedown defense and open striking defense give Moicano chances; Moicano's history against powerful strikers gives Nolan chances. Championship rounds favor the younger man's gas tank, but they also give Moicano more scrambles to work with.

Pick: Nolan, low confidence. At −101 he's a near pick'em, and the size and body work matter over 25 minutes. A Moicano rear-naked choke is the obvious way he's wrong.

Randy Brown (+234) vs Jacobe Smith (−283), welterweight

Brown (20-8, age 36): A long (6'3", 78" reach) striker from Jamaica who trains at Budokan Martial Arts. He has 8 KO/TKO wins, 5 submissions (2 guillotines, RNC, armbar, triangle) and 7 decisions. He's an outside, combination striker: 4.39 significant strikes landed per minute, 47% accuracy, 54% defense, with 20% of his work to the body and 17% to the legs. His 75% takedown defense is his best defensive number, and his guillotine is a real threat to anyone who shoots carelessly. Recent form: a split-decision loss to Bryan Battle, a KO of Nicolas Dalby, a knockout loss to Gabriel Bonfim in November 2025, and a decision loss to Kevin Holland in April.

Smith (13-0, age 30): An undefeated wrestler (a two-time NJCAA national champion and three-time All-American) who wins with ground-and-pound. He has 10 KO/TKO wins, 1 submission (RNC) and 2 decisions. UFC.com credits him with 7.92 takedowns per 15 minutes, 6.91 significant strikes per minute at 67% accuracy, and 100% takedown defense; 49% of his significant strikes have landed on the ground. In the UFC he's knocked out Preston Parsons, submitted Niko Price, knocked out Josiah Harrell and stopped Bruce Whitehead in 1:32 at UFC 332 on October 3. That's a quick turnaround: four weeks between fights. Data caution: four UFC fights, and UFC.com lists his takedown accuracy as 0% despite the high average, which looks like a stats-page quirk.

How it plays out: Brown needs to keep it long with the jab and kicks, punish level changes, and look for the guillotine if Smith dives in. Smith wants to close distance, get him down early and stay on top with strikes. Brown has 78" of reach and good takedown defense; Smith has never been in a fight he couldn't drag to the mat.

Pick: Smith, by ground-and-pound stoppage. Brown's guillotine is the upset path.

Ode' Osbourne (−102) vs Cody Durden (−114), flyweight

Osbourne (13-9, age 34): A rangy striker for flyweight (5'7" with a 73" reach) with a wrestling background. UFC.com lists his style as Striker. He has 6 KO/TKO wins, 4 submissions (2 triangles, RNC, armbar) and 3 decisions, with eight first-round finishes. He's a power-first, low-volume fighter: 2.94 significant strikes per minute at 41% accuracy, 49% strike defense, 67% takedown defense, and 83% of his strikes thrown at distance. His last fight, a decision loss to Alibi Idiris in February, was overturned to a no-contest after Idiris failed a drug test. Before that: a TKO of Luis Gurule and decision losses to Ronaldo Rodriguez and Steve Erceg. He's been submitted three times in the UFC (Brian Kelleher, Asu Almabayev, Jafel Filho).

Durden (18-11-1, age 35): An American Top Team fighter and two-time Georgia high school state wrestling champion with a BJJ black belt. UFC.com lists his style as Striker, but his game is wrestling: 3.82 takedowns per 15 minutes, with 6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions (2 RNC, 2 armbars, guillotine, anaconda) and 6 decisions. On the feet he lands 3.27 per minute and absorbs 3.89, with 51% strike defense and 57% takedown defense. His recent form is rough: 1-4 in his last five, with a 2025 KO loss to Jose Ochoa, an anaconda-choke loss to Allan Nascimento, a decision loss to Nyamjargal Tumendemberel, a decision win over Jafel Filho in April, and an RNC loss to Alessandro Costa in July.

How it plays out: Osbourne has the big reach edge (73" to 67") and the one-shot power; he wants to keep it standing and land something clean. Durden wants to close the distance, chain takedowns and grind. Osbourne's three UFC submission losses are the matchup problem.

Pick: Durden by decision, low confidence. It's priced as a coin flip, and that's right.

Yana Santos (+212) vs Luana Santos (−255), women's bantamweight

Yana Santos (17-8, age 36, #6): A Russian striker out of American Top Team (Russian Thai boxing and taekwondo champion, former Invicta bantamweight champion). She has 7 KO/TKO wins, 1 submission and 9 decisions. She's a body hunter and a clinch fighter: only 34% of her significant strikes go to the head, with 41% to the body and 25% to the legs, and 39% of her work comes in the clinch. She's accurate (58%) and lands 4.41 per minute while absorbing 3.12, with 53% strike defense. Takedown defense is the weak spot at 52%. She's on a three-fight win streak, all decisions: Chelsea Chandler, Miesha Tate and Macy Chiasson (October 2025), so she's been out about a year.

Luana Santos (11-2, age 26, #7): A judo black belt (Brazilian, Pan American and European judo champion) with a BJJ purple belt. She has 1 KO/TKO win, 5 submissions (guillotine, RNC, keylock, americana and one undisclosed) and 5 decisions, and she's won eight of her last nine. Her defense is the best on this card's main card: 64% significant-strike defense and 86% takedown defense, and she absorbs only 2.45 per minute. She lands 2.53 per minute and averages 2.14 takedowns and 0.97 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Since a decision loss to Casey O'Neill in 2024, she's submitted Tainara Lisboa (americana) and beaten Melissa Croden and Karol Rosa (June) by decision.

How it plays out: Yana wants to clinch, work the body and legs, and win a 15-minute striking fight on output. That clinch is exactly where Luana's judo lives: throws and trips into top position, where her submissions take over. Yana's 52% takedown defense against Luana's grappling is the whole fight.

Pick: Luana Santos, by decision or a late submission.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (−305) vs Farman Hasanov (+250), welterweight

Lebosnoyani (11-2, age 27): A BJJ black belt (training jiu-jitsu since age three) out of Cobra Team and The Q MMA. He has 3 KO/TKO wins, 5 submissions (3 triangles, guillotine, scarf-hold armlock) and 3 decisions, and he's 6-0 since moving up to welterweight. In the UFC he's won a split decision over Phil Rowe and a decision over SeokHyeon Ko in July. He lands 4.14 per minute and absorbs 4.05, with 57% strike defense, 100% takedown defense (small sample) and 1.93 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He spreads his strikes (61% head, 19% body, 20% legs).

Hasanov (6-0, age 31): A freestyle wrestler (Master of Sport) from Azerbaijan who trains at American Top Team. UFC.com lists his style as Wrestler. He has 4 KO/TKO wins and 2 decisions. His UFC debut in June was a decision over Eric Nolan, and the stats from that one fight are extreme: 17.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, 71% strike defense, only 1.40 significant strikes landed per minute. Data caution: one UFC fight; those rate numbers come from 15 minutes of work.

How it plays out: Hasanov is going to wrestle. The question is whether Lebosnoyani's guard (three triangle wins) punishes him for it or whether a freestyle wrestler can hold him down for 15 minutes. Lebosnoyani is the more complete fighter on the feet.

Pick: Lebosnoyani, by decision or a submission off his back. Hasanov's wrestling makes +250 interesting, but the sample is tiny.

Prelims

Francis Marshall (−219) vs Dakota Hope (+184), featherweight (Marshall missed weight)

Marshall (10-3, age 27): An American Top Team grappler (UFC.com: Freestyle) who finishes with the rear-naked choke: 5 of his 10 wins are RNCs, plus 1 KO/TKO and 4 decisions. He averages 2.71 takedowns per 15 minutes with 89% takedown defense and 55% strike defense, but his striking is low-output (3.19 per minute, 34% accuracy, 86% to the head). He's won two straight: a first-round RNC of Erik Silva and a decision over Lucas Brennan in April. He missed weight by two pounds on Friday (148).

Hope (11-2, age 29): A 4oz Fight Club featherweight (training partner of Joshua Van) and a high-pace pressure striker. He has 5 KO/TKO wins, 1 submission and 5 decisions. In his UFC debut, a short-notice split-decision loss to Kai Kamaka III at lightweight in April, he landed 7.07 significant strikes per minute and absorbed 7.00, with 41% of his strikes to the body and 42% of his work in the clinch. Strike defense in that fight was 34%. He's back at featherweight, where he's 11-1, and he took this fight on short notice again, replacing Gaston Bolaños. Data caution: one UFC fight.

How it plays out: Hope wants to crowd Marshall, work the body in the clinch and turn it into a volume fight. Marshall wants to get him down and find the back. Hope's 100% takedown defense comes from one fight; Marshall's wrestling is the real test of it. The weight miss gives Marshall a size edge, which doesn't always mean a good camp.

Pick: Marshall by decision.

Rodrigo Sezinando (−173) vs Theodor Berggren (+147), welterweight

Sezinando (9-2, age 28): A Brazilian out of The Academy Fight Club who made the TUF 33 welterweight final (decisions over Diego Bianchini and Jeff Creighton) before Daniil Donchenko stopped him in the first round of the final in September 2025. He has 4 KO/TKO wins, 3 submissions (2 RNC, triangle) and 2 decisions, with six first-round finishes. His official UFC sample is one short fight, which is why UFC.com shows 8.76 absorbed per minute and 3.37 takedowns per 15 minutes. Data caution: that's a sub-five-minute sample; don't read much into it.

Berggren (8-4, age 26): A Swedish finisher with a long frame (5'11", 75" reach). He has 5 KO/TKO wins and 3 submissions (all RNC) and has never won a decision. His UFC debut in June was also against Donchenko, who stopped him in the second round. In that fight he absorbed 10.78 strikes per minute with 34% strike defense. Data caution: one UFC fight.

How it plays out: Two finishers, both coming off TKO losses to the same man. Sezinando has the deeper grappling and wants to take it down; Berggren has the reach and needs to land at range. Both have shown defensive holes.

Pick: Sezinando, low confidence.

Julian Erosa (+139) vs JeongYeong Lee (−163), featherweight

Erosa (31-14, age 37): Erosa says this is his retirement fight (per his UFC.com bio, he's moving the family back to Washington to help on the family farm). He's an all-action, aggressive fighter who throws a lot and gets hit a lot: 6.18 significant strikes landed per minute, 6.31 absorbed, 49% defense. He's a dangerous scrambler and front-headlock submission threat: 14 submissions (2 guillotines, 2 brabos, bulldog choke, 3 triangles, 3 armbars, RNC, 2 D'Arce chokes), plus 12 KO/TKO wins and 5 decisions. He's 1-2 in his last three: a TKO of Darren Elkins, a decision loss to Melquizael Costa and a first-round KO loss to Lerryan Douglas in March. He's been stopped by strikes several times in the UFC.

Lee (11-3, age 30): The Road to UFC featherweight winner (UFC.com lists his style as Brazilian jiu-jitsu) with 4 KO/TKO wins, 3 armbars and 4 decisions. He's a measured striker: 3.38 per minute at 49% accuracy, 51% defense, 73% takedown defense. After decision wins over Yi Zha and Blake Bilder, he was stopped by Hyder Amil in 65 seconds and lost a decision to Daniel Santos in May 2025, so he's been out about 17 months.

How it plays out: Erosa will push a fast pace and look for the front headlock every time Lee changes levels or ducks. Lee is the cleaner, more careful striker and wants to make Erosa pay for walking in. Erosa's chin has been the problem late in his career.

Pick: Lee by decision. A retirement-fight Erosa guillotine wouldn't shock me.

Zachary Reese (−350) vs Mickey Gall (+284), middleweight

Reese (10-4, 1 NC, age 32): A tall (6'4", 77" reach) Xtreme Couture finisher with 5 KO/TKO wins, 3 submissions and 2 decisions. Four of his wins came in under a minute. He's aggressive and well-rounded: 4.47 strikes per minute, 2.74 takedowns and 1.25 submission attempts per 15 minutes, with 31% of his strikes to the body. Defense is the issue: 44% strike defense and 52% takedown defense, and he's been knocked out by Cody Brundage, Azamat Bekoev and, in July, Ryan Gandra (1:15 of the first). He's lost two straight after a split-decision loss to Michel Pereira.

Gall (7-7, age 34): A Gracie New Jersey jiu-jitsu fighter who wins one way: all six of his submission wins are rear-naked chokes (his other win is a decision). He hasn't fought since November 2024, when Ramiz Brahimaj knocked him out, and he's 1-5 in his last six. Defensively he's vulnerable: 50% strike defense and 38% takedown defense. He's moving up to middleweight.

How it plays out: Reese has the size, reach and power and wants an early finish. Gall wants a scramble and his back-take. Reese's chin is the one variable; Gall's layoff and his recent form are the bigger ones.

Pick: Reese by early stoppage.

Nick Klein (+265) vs Joe Kropschot (−325), middleweight

Klein (6-3, age 31): A Wisconsin wrestler (high school state finalist) with a BJJ purple belt, 2 KO/TKO wins, 3 RNCs and 1 decision. His UFC stats show the wrestling: 5.79 takedowns per 15 minutes, with 54% of his significant strikes going to the body. He's 0-2 in the UFC, stopped by strikes in the second round by Mansur Abdul-Malik and Andrey Pulyaev, and he hasn't fought since August 2025.

Kropschot (9-3, age 31): A long (6'3", 79" reach) grappler making his UFC debut: former LFA middleweight champion, ADCC Open gold medalist, with 2 KO/TKO wins and 6 submissions (RNC x4, triangle, guillotine). He's on a five-fight win streak and earned his contract with a decision on the Contender Series in August. Data caution: his UFC.com rate stats come from that one Contender Series fight.

How it plays out: Klein wants to wrestle; Kropschot is the better grappler with a two-inch reach edge (79" to 77") and a submission game that punishes bad takedown attempts.

Pick: Kropschot by submission.

Talita Alencar (+247) vs Piera Rodriguez (−300), women's strawweight

Alencar (8-1-1, age 36): A grappler (UFC.com: Grappler) from Team Reis and M80 Wrestling. Four of her eight wins are rear-naked chokes; the other four are decisions. She averages 3.01 takedowns per 15 minutes with 67% takedown defense. She's 3-0 in her last three: decisions over Vanessa Demopoulos and Julia Polastri around a third-round RNC of Ariane Carnelossi. At 5'1" with a 58.5" reach, she gives up five inches of reach here.

Rodriguez (12-2, age 33): A former LFA strawweight champion out of Xtreme Couture. UFC.com lists her style as Striker, but she's a pressure fighter who wrestles a lot: 4.04 takedowns per 15 minutes and 30% of her significant strikes in the clinch. She also has the best takedown defense in this matchup (82%). She has 5 KO/TKO wins and 7 decisions. She's won three straight decisions: Josefine Knutsson, a split over Ketlen Souza and Sam Hughes in March.

How it plays out: Alencar wants to get it down and hunt the back. Rodriguez is stronger in the clinch, defends takedowns well and can out-wrestle Alencar for position while out-landing her.

Pick: Rodriguez by decision.

Lucia Szabová (−750) vs Tainara Lisboa (+540), women's flyweight

Szabová (12-0, age 28): The two-division OKTAGON champion (bantamweight and flyweight) makes her UFC debut. She has 4 KO/TKO wins and 5 submissions (four armbars and a standing americana), and she's a former Slovak national K-1 champion with pro kickboxing and Muay Thai experience. Data caution: no UFC stats yet, so there's nothing to quote on her defense; her last three fights were five-round title fights in OKTAGON.

Lisboa (7-4, age 35): A Muay Thai striker (UFC.com: Muay Thai) with 3 KO/TKO wins, 3 submissions (2 arm triangles, RNC) and 1 decision. She's a low-output fighter: 2.01 significant strikes per minute, with 38% of her work in the clinch, 46% strike defense and 53% takedown defense. She's lost two straight: an americana to Luana Santos and a third-round TKO by Melissa Croden in October 2025.

How it plays out: Szabová is the more active striker and the more dangerous grappler on paper. Lisboa needs to make it a clinch fight and land something big.

Pick: Szabová, probably by submission. −750 is only parlay material.

Data gaps

Six fighters have one UFC fight or less (Hasanov, Hope, Berggren, Kropschot, Szabová, plus Sezinando's one official sub-five-minute UFC bout), so their UFC.com rate stats come from very small samples or don't exist. Szabová has no UFC stats at all. Jacobe Smith's 0% takedown accuracy next to a 7.92 average is how UFC.com shows it. UFC.com's athlete-record widget mislabels some of Moicano's recent results, so I used the written fight-by-fight list in each bio. UFC.com lists rankings of #12 and #14 for the main event; other trackers rank them differently. Klein's weigh-in was confirmed by MMA Fighting and Sherdog (186). No bouts were scratched as of the snapshot; Hope replaced Bolaños earlier in the month.

Records, ages and stats from UFC.com athlete pages; card from UFC.com, cross-checked with Tapology and Sherdog; weigh-ins via UFC.com, MMA Fighting and Sherdog. BetOnline odds as reported by UFCalendar and BestMMAStats; lines move.